Rural electrification. Renewable energy  Power distribution



Update of the Kenya National Electrification Strategy (KNES)

Country : Kenya. .
Client : Ministry of Energy, Kenya
Start Date : 2023-09-01
Completion Date : 2024-03-31
Value of services : 402 810 EUROS
Funder : World Bank .
Associate/Partner : GME, Strathmore University, World Resources Institute
Description :
Currently, electricity access in Kenya is estimated at 89%. According to Kenya Power’s annual report of 2020, 70% of households in Kenya have been electrified through the grid. Notwithstanding, connection rate can remain very low in some regions, especially in rural areas. The objective of this assignment is to support the Ministry of Energy in updating the 2018 Kenya National Electrification Strategy (KNES), using geospatial tools to define a roadmap for achieving universal access to electricity services withing the shortest time-frame and at least cost. Successfully meeting this objective requires to:

1/ Update data and approaches to electrification to account for developments in the institutional, regulatory, technical fields since 2018;

2/ Revisit the electrification pathways envisaged in the 2018 KNES to assess the potential for an increased role for off-grid electrification and private sector;

3/ Undertake a detailed reflection on the implementation of the strategy from a financial, institutional, and operational standpoint, with particular attention to the capacity of implementing entities (Kenya Power, other SAGAs, or private sector), to deliver on the proposed strategy;

4/ Build on the 2018 strategy development process to institutionalize electrification planning within MoE and SAGAs through capacity building; the delivery of powerful, easy-to-use geospatial planning tools; and an online scenario and data visualization platform.
Description of the Actual Services Provided The project is organized in four tasks:

Task 0: Preparation and kick-off: the consultant undertakes preparatory work from the earliest stages of the project in order to ensure alignment with the client and key stakeholders, to generate a data collection strategy, and onboard stakeholders through preparatory meeting, kick-off workshop and definition of a data collection strategy.

Task 1: Review of background documents for the electricity sub-sector and assessment of the current electrification status. This involves to collect and review key data and documentation on institutional, technical and financial aspects in order to make gap analyses and recommendations.

Task 2: Review and update of the design and planning of the KNES. This task led by IED lies on:
- The definition of current access and target service levels
- The use of a specific GIS and of the geospatial planning tool GEOSIM to forecast additional demand and identify least cost technology options among densification, grid extensions, mini-grids and solar standalone systems. Sensitivity analysis and web-based visualization of scenarios are performed in order to help decision making. A GIS/GEOSIM training is undertaken toward national staff to increase planning capacities.
- A financial planning to appreciate levels of investment throughout the strategy.

Task 3: Update of the strategy for implementation of the KNES. The Consultant reviews the recommendations made during the previous KNES regarding the institutional, technical and financial aspects of implementation to assess:
- The extent to which these recommendations were implemented between 2018 and 2022, and lessons learned
- The appropriateness of these recommendations given the changes in the sector since 2018, with particular attention to the impact of the 2019 Energy Act
- Any gaps or additional requirements that should be taken into account in the updated implementation strategy

Task 4: Initial and ongoing electrification investment plans. The IED team provides an initial electrification investment plan for each year of the planning horizon with detailed list of projects and maps showing:
- Electrification turnkey packages and off-grid projects to be implemented
- Settlements/clusters electrified
- New connections and impact on the access rate
- Required investments and planned financing mechanisms
- Additional demand