Fiches GB: May 2019

Power generation. N/A  N/A



Electric load forecast model horizon 2035 for interconnected electric system of Antananarivo, Toamasina and Fianarantsoa.

Country : Madagascar
Client : EIFFAGE S.A
Start Date : December 2018
Completion Date : May 2019
Value of services : 57 200 €
Funder : AfDB (African Development Bank) .
Associate/Partner : N/A
Description :
Detailed demand-load forecast through a bottom up approach taking into account the current suppressed demand that could be met following the commissioning of a large hydropower project and planned network extension
Description of the Actual Services Provided Task 1 : critical review of existing load forecast studies
Assessment of adequacy of methodologies used for the development of these plans related to demand estimation; Identification gaps and shortcomings, particularly regarding the treatment of suppressed demand
Task 2 : detailed analysis of suppressed demand
Analysis of the national utility company (“Jirama”) on the assessment and methodologies applied in its assessment of the suppressed demand in the country
Field survey to to gain in depth understanding of current electricity market demand, driving forces and obstacles, and assess the current number of unsatisfied connections from residential, commercial and industrial consumers, Estimation of current auto-consumption and suppressed demand due to load shedding
Estimation of te additional load required by major projects
Estimation of additional load that could arise from the setting up of more aggressive commercial strategies
Task 3 : construction of detailed demand scenarios
A business as usual demand scenario, based on a natural growth of demand in areas already electrified following the development of residential, commercial and industrial sectors in the RIA, also taking into account likely changes in living standards, over a forecast period until 2035
The gradual expression of suppressed demand due to structural supply side constraints with the commissioning of a 200 MW hydro plant and the planned network expansion, over a forecast until 2035