Fiches GB: May 2019



Studies
Power generation. Power distribution  Hydro electricity

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Forecast Load Analysis for an Interconnected Power System by 2035

Country : Madagascar
Client : EIFFAGE S.A
Start Date : December 2018
Completion Date : May 2019
Value of services : 57 000 €
Funder : AfDB (African Development Bank) .
Associate/Partner : N/A
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Description :
As part of its financing activities for major energy infrastructure projects in Africa, the African Development Bank (AfDB) has targeted Madagascar for potential investments and is interested in a large hydroelectric project of 192 MW carried by a group led by the company Eiffage, as well as the planned extension of the interconnected electricity grid of Antananarivo, Toamasina and Fianarantsoa.

In order to be able to make a decision about its investment choices, the ADB has asked IED to carry out the task of the independent study on behalf of Eiffage, concerning the detailed forecast analysis of the load of demand on the horizon. 2035.
This analysis was carried out according to a bottom-up approach taking into account the "suppressed" demand that could be satisfied following the commissioning of the large hydro dam project.
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Description of the Actual Services Provided 1 / Critical review of existing load forecasting studies:
• Assessment of the adequacy of the methodologies used for the development of the plans related to the demand assessment;
• Identification of gaps, in particular for the processing of the deleted application.

2 / Detailed analysis of the deleted application:
• Study of the capabilities of JIRAMA, the national utility company, on the evaluation and applied methodologies of suppressed demand assessment in the country;
• Field survey to study the current demand of the electricity market, strengths and obstacles, and to evaluate the current number of unsatisfied connections from residential, commercial and industrial consumers;
• Estimate current self-consumption and demand removed due to load shedding;
• Estimation of the additional burden required by major projects and that which may result from the implementation of more aggressive commercial strategies by JIRAMA

3 / Construction of different detailed demand scenari by 2035:
• Definition of usual demand scenari, based on a natural growth of demand in areas already electrified as a result of the development of the residential, commercial and industrial sectors in the RIA, taking into account the probable changes in the standard of living;
• Definition of the phased expression of demand removed due to structural constraints on the supply side with the commissioning of a 192 MW hydroelectric facility and planned expansion of the grid.