Power generation. N/A  N/A



Update of the Power Demand Forecast Study in Nouakchott

Country : Mauritania .
Client : SOMELEC .
Start Date : 2004
Completion Date : 2005
Value of services : 14 300€
Funder : SOMELEC (Mauritania)
Associate/Partner : N/A
Description :
The objectives of the study were to conduct the power demand forecast in Nouakchott over the 2005-2020 period, and to provide subsequent recommendations on the sizing of new production equipment.
This study was an update since it was to bring together the aggregated statistics to the data of the previous study conducted by IED 9 years earlier.
Description of the Actual Services Provided The consultant performed the following activities :
Long Term Demand Analysis
First simulations based on the 2000 census, on the Nouakchott Urbanisation Master Plan (SDAU) that provided targeted pictures of the capital of Mauritania in 2010 and 2020, as well as on the electricity demand growth rate observed on the last 20 years.
Review of Historical Development of Power Equipment
Review of the production means status, of the transport lines (225kV Manatali line) and of the networks.
Comparison to the city growth rate and inclusion of the particular effects of suburban area development, and the restructuring of existing districts.
Evolution of the current electricity supply status
Historical production statistics adjusted to the 1995 situation, and detailed supply between the energy imports from Manatali and the thermal production . Detailed diagnosis of the load in Nouakchott :
Hour Load duration curve,
Daily Maximum Load,
Daily production split between Manantali and thermal production
Weekly diagrams in cold and hot seasons
Evolution and current status of power sales
Detailed analysis per customer segment
Major Projects Perspectives

Data collected with the ministries in charge of industry, mining and petrol, inclucing the water supply AFTOUT project from 2009.
Analysis of urban development and diagnosis of the electrification penetration
Statistical and geographical data compilation, including the SDAU urban modelisation, and the SOMELEC commercial data.
Macro economical and et socio-economic context
Description of the context and correlations with the growth rate of power demand. Expected impact of the implementation of the petrol and gas installations.
Provisionnal analysis of energy demand to the 2020 horizon
Analytical forecast conceived as a monitoring tool.
Scenarios development : “low” and “most probable” demand growth
Power requirements summary until 2020 on the interconnected system and in Nouakchott
Simulations with various guarantee level highlighted a need for thermal capacity additions up to 175 MW in 2020.
Preliminary capacity sizing and recommendations for new equipment configuration
Investment costs estimations for the first investment scheme of 60MW.